3 Reasons To Move in Today’s Shifting Market

Some Highlights The housing market is in a transition. And that gives you 3 key opportunities going into the fall. There are more homes actively for sale. Builders are motivated to sell, so a newly built home may be more achievable than you think. And mortgage rates have come down from their recent peak. If you’re ready and able to buy, you may find the housing market this fall a bit easier to navigate. Let’s connect to get started.​

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Are There More Homes for Sale Where You Live?

One of the biggest bright spots in today’s housing market is how much the supply of homes for sale has grown since the beginning of this year.  Recent data from Realtor.com shows that nationally, there are 36.6% more homes actively for sale now compared to the same time last year. That’s a significant improvement. It gives you far more options for your move than you would’ve had just a year ago. And with supply improving, you’re also regaining a bit of negotiation power. So, if you’re someone who thought about buying a home over the last few years but was discouraged by how limited inventory was, this should be welcome news. As Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), says:  “Increased housing supply spells good news for consumers who want to see more properties before making purchasing decisions.” But just so you have perspective, even though inventory has grown, that doesn’t mean we’ve suddenly flipped to an oversupply of homes on the market. There are nowhere near enough homes for sale to make prices crash. If you compare today’s inventory levels to more normal, pre-pandemic numbers (2017–2019), there are still roughly 29% fewer homes actively for sale now (see graph below): So, while we’re up by almost 37% year-over-year, we’re still not back to how much inventory there’d be in a normal market.  As Bill McBride, Housing Analyst for Calculated Risk, explains:  “ . . . currently inventory is increasing year-over-year but is still well below pre-pandemic levels.” But that’s okay. It’s to be expected. As a country, it’ll take a while to get back to the typical level of homes for sale. And the good news for buyers is, in some select markets, it’s closer to being a reality. Here’s a rundown of what today’s inventory growth looks like by region (see graph below): Real estate will always be hyper-local. If you want to find out what inventory numbers look like where you live, reach out to a local agent. They’ll be able to tell you what they’re seeing and how it stacks up to the national market. You may find you have even more opportunity to move where you are. Bottom Line The supply of homes across the country is improving in a big way. As a buyer, that gives you more options for your home search, and ultimately, a better chance of finding what you like. So, what are you looking for in a home? And what’s your budget? Let’s go over that together to find the options that may be right for you.

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Are Home Prices Going To Come Down?

Today’s headlines and news stories about home prices are confusing and make it tough to know what’s really happening. Some say home prices are heading for a correction, but what do the facts say? Well, it helps to start by looking at what a correction means. Here’s what Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com, says:  “In stock market terms, a correction is generally referred to as a 10 to 20% drop in prices . . . We don't have the same established definitions in the housing market.” In the context of today’s housing market, it doesn’t mean home prices are going to fall dramatically. It only means prices, which have been increasing rapidly over the last couple years, are normalizing a bit. In other words, they’re now growing at a slower pace. Prices vary a lot by local market, but rest assured, a big drop off isn’t what’s happening at a national level. The Real Estate Market Is Normalizing From 2020 to 2022, home prices skyrocketed. That rapid increase was due to high demand, low interest rates, and a shortage of homes for sale. But, that kind of aggressive growth couldn’t continue forever. Today, price growth has started to slow down, which is a sign the market is beginning to normalize. The most recent data from Case-Shiller shows that after being basically flat for a couple of months last year, prices are going up at a national level – just not as quickly as before (see graph below): The big takeaway? So far this year, there’s been a much healthier pace of price growth compared to the pandemic. Of course, that’s what’s happening now, but you may be wondering what’s next for prices. Marco Santarelli, the Founder of Norada Real Estate Investments, says: “Expert forecasts lean towards a moderation in home price growth over the next five years. This translates to a slower and more sustainable pace of appreciation compared to the breakneck speed witnessed in recent years, rather than a freefall in prices.” It’s all about supply and demand. Increasing inventory plus limited buyer demand, due to relatively high mortgage rates, will continue to ease some of the upward pressure on prices.  What This Means for You  If you’re thinking about buying a home, slowing price growth is welcome news. Skyrocketing home prices during the pandemic left many would-be homebuyers feeling priced-out.  While it’s still a good thing to know the value of the home you buy will likely continue to go up once you own it, slowing price gains are making things feel more manageable. Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American, says: “While housing affordability is low for potential first-time home buyers, slowing price appreciation and lower mortgage rates could help — so the dream of homeownership isn't boarded up just yet.” Bottom Line At the national level, home prices are not going down. And most experts forecast they’ll continue growing moderately moving forward. But prices vary a lot by local market. That’s where a trusted real estate agent comes into play. If you have questions about what’s happening with prices in our area, reach out.

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