Home Values Rise Even as Median Prices Fall

What’s Really Happening with Home Prices? Here’s What You Need to Know in West Georgia Recent headlines have been buzzing about the median asking price of homes dropping compared to last year, and that’s sparked plenty of confusion. And as a buyer or seller in West Georgia, it’s easy to assume that means prices are coming down. But here’s the catch: those numbers don’t tell the full story. Nationally, home values are actually rising, even if the median price is down a bit. Let’s break down what’s really happening so you can make sense of the market without getting caught up in the fear the headlines create. Homes on the Market Right Now Are Smaller The biggest reason for the dip in median price is the size of homes being sold. The median price reflects the middle point of all the homes for sale at any given time, and that’ll be affected by the mix of homes on the market. To show you how this works, here’s a simple explanation of a median (see visual below). Let’s say you have three coins in your pocket, and you decide to line them up according to their value from low to high. If you have one nickel and two dimes, the median (the middle one) is 10 cents. If you have two nickels and one dime, the median is now five cents. In both cases, a nickel is still worth five cents and a dime is still worth 10 cents. The value of each coin didn’t change. The same is true for housing. Right now, in West Georgia, we’re seeing a greater number of smaller, more affordable homes on the market in places like Dallas, Acworth, and Kennesaw, and that’s bringing the overall median price down. But that doesn’t mean home values are declining. As Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com, explains: “The share of inventory of smaller and more affordable homes has grown, which helps hold down the median price even as per-square-foot prices grow further.” And here’s the data to prove it. Price Per Square Foot Is Still Rising One of the best ways to measure home values is by looking at the price per square foot. That’s because it shows how much you're paying for the space inside the home. The median asking price doesn’t take into account the size of different homes, so it may not always reflect the true value. The latest national price-per-square-foot data shows home values are still increasing, even though the median asking price has dropped. Locally, in West Georgia, we’ve seen similar trends, with price per square foot continuing to rise in areas like Paulding, Cobb, and Bartow counties. This means that while smaller homes are affecting the median price, the average home’s value is still rising. According to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA): “Nationally, the U.S. housing market has experienced positive annual appreciation each quarter since the start of 2012.” So, while headlines may make it sound like prices are crashing, you don’t have to worry. With a closer look and more reliable data, you can see that prices are still climbing nationally and here in West Georgia. But Remember, Real Estate Is Local It’s important to remember that home prices can vary by region. While national trends provide a big-picture view, local markets like West Georgia may be experiencing different conditions. A trusted agent is the best resource to explain what’s happening in your area. Bottom Line The decrease in median price is not the same as a decrease in home values. The median asking price is down mostly due to the mix of smaller, less expensive homes on the market. The important thing to focus on is the price per square foot, which is a better indicator of overall market value—and those prices are still going up here in West Georgia. If you have questions about what home prices are doing in our area, feel free to reach out!

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Is Affordability Starting To Improve?

Over the past couple of years, a lot of people have had a hard time buying a home. And while affordability is still tight, there are signs it's getting a little better and might keep improving throughout the rest of the year. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), says: “Housing affordability is improving ever so modestly, but it is moving in the right direction.” Here’s a look at the latest data on the three biggest factors affecting home affordability: mortgage rates, home prices, and wages.  1. Mortgage Rates Mortgage rates have been volatile this year, bouncing around from the mid-6% to low 7% range. But there's some good news. Data from Freddie Mac shows rates have been trending down overall since May (see graph below): Mortgage rates have improved lately in part because of recent economic, employment, and inflation data. Moving forward, some rate volatility is to be expected. But if future economic data continues to show signs of cooling, experts say mortgage rates could keep going down.  Even a small drop can help you out. When rates decline, it's easier to afford the home you want because your monthly payment will be lower. Just don’t expect them to go back down to 3%. 2. Home Prices The second big thing to think about is home prices. Nationally, they’re still going up this year, but not as fast as they did a couple of years ago. The graph below uses home price data from Case-Shiller to illustrate that point: If you're thinking about buying a home, slower price growth is good news. Home prices went up a lot during the pandemic, making it hard for many people to buy. Now, with prices rising more slowly, buying a home may feel less out of reach. As Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American, says:  “While housing affordability is low for potential first-time home buyers, slowing price appreciation and lower mortgage rates could help – so the dream of homeownership isn’t boarded up just yet.” 3. Wages Another factor helping with affordability is rising wages. The graph below uses data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) to show how wages have increased over time: Look at the blue dotted line. It shows how wages usually go up in a typical year. On the right side of the graph, you'll see wages are rising even faster than normal right now – that's the green line. This helps you because if your income increases, it's easier to afford a home. That’s because you won't have to spend as much of your paycheck on your monthly mortgage payment. Bottom Line When you put all these factors together, you see mortgage rates are trending down, home prices are rising more slowly, and wages are going up faster than usual. Though affordability is still a challenge, these trends are early signs things might be starting to improve.

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Why Pre-Approval Should Be at the Top of Your Homebuying To-Do List

Since the supply of homes for sale is growing and mortgage rates are coming down, you may be thinking it’s finally your moment to jump into the market. To make sure you’re ready, you need to get pre-approved for a mortgage. That’s when a lender looks at your finances, including things like your W-2, tax returns, credit score, and bank statements, to figure out what they’re willing to loan you. After that process, you’ll get a pre-approval letter to show what you can borrow. Here are two reasons why this is essential in today’s market. Pre-Approval Helps You Know Your Numbers While home affordability is finally starting to show signs of improving, it’s still tight. So, it’s a good idea to talk to a lender about your loan options and how today’s changing mortgage rates will impact your monthly payment. The pre-approval process is the perfect time for that. In addition to determining the maximum amount you can borrow, pre-approval also helps you understand this piece of the puzzle. As Investopedia says: “Consulting with a lender and obtaining a pre-approval letter allows you to discuss loan options and budgeting with the lender; this step can clarify your total house-hunting budget and the monthly mortgage payment you can afford.” You should use this information to tailor your home search to what you’re actually comfortable with budget-wise. Since mortgage rates have inched down some lately, you may find you’re able to afford a bit more than you’d expect for your monthly payment, but you still want to avoid overextending. As CNET explains: “In many cases, a lender may preapprove you for more than you need to spend on a home. And while it can be tempting to look at houses outside your budget, it won’t help you in the long run. Before you start touring homes, figure out how much you can realistically afford and stick to your budget.” Pre-Approval Makes Your Offer More Appealing And once you do find a home you want in your budget, pre-approval has another big perk. It not only makes your offer stronger, it also shows sellers you’ve already undergone a credit and financial check. When a seller sees you as a serious buyer, they may be more attracted to your offer because it seems more likely to go through. As Greg McBride, Chief Financial Analyst at Bankrate, says: “Preapproval carries more weight because it means lenders have actually done more than a cursory review of your credit and your finances, but have instead reviewed your pay stubs, tax returns and bank statements. A preapproval means you’ve cleared the hurdles necessary to be approved for a mortgage up to a certain dollar amount.” As mortgage rates trend down, more buyers are going to be ready to jump back into the market. And while demand is still limited right now, there’s the potential for competition to pick back up, especially in hot markets. So, why not stack the deck in your favor and make sure you’re putting yourself in the best position possible when you find a home you love? Bottom Line If you’re planning on buying a home, don’t forget to get pre-approved early in the process. It can help you get a more in-depth understanding of what you can borrow and shows sellers you mean business.

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